Ireland’s first National Climate Change Risk Assessment (NCCRA) was published by the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) in June 2025. This provides an assessment of the potential risks and opportunities facing Ireland due to climate change.
The methodology adopted to conduct the risk assessment was semi-quantitative. The NCCRA identifies and prioritises climate change risks across nine systems, many of which are directly relevant to the responsibilities of Local Authorities, including the Built Environment and Social systems. Interdependencies across the nine systems were also considered.
Two climate scenarios were considered: 1. A moderate emissions scenario (RCP 4.5) and a high emissions scenario (RCP 8.5). Three time horizons were considered: 1. Present to 2030, 2) mid-century (2050), and 3) late-century (2100).
Key Findings
The report identifies 115 risks across the nine systems for Ireland. Of these, 43 risks are deemed to be significant in terms of impact at a national level. Nine risks were identified as priority risks, four of which are deemed to require urgent action with then next five years:
- Risk of disruption and damage to energy transmission and distribution infrastructure due to extreme wind;
- Risk of disruption and damage to communication infrastructure due to extreme wind;
- Risk of disruption, damage and loss of transport infrastructure due to sea level rise, coastal erosion and coastal flooding;
- Risk of damage and loss of buildings due to sea level rise, coastal erosion, and coastal flooding.
Specific Relevance for Local Authorities
The NCCRA holds significant relevance for Local Authorities in Ireland, primarily by providing a comprehensive, evidence for implementation of their Climate Action Plans and future iterations of these. The assessment supports the prioritisation of adaptation-related investments in infrastructure, which is crucial for Local Authorities responsible for managing the built environment and essential services within their jurisdictions. The Main Report of the NCCRA provides an overview of the methodology used in the NCCRA, its key findings, and recommendations for improving climate risk assessments. Understanding this methodology could help Local Authorities adopt robust approaches for their own risk assessments at the local level.
While the NCCRA is a national-scale assessment, it assesses risk exposure across eight NUTS3 subregions, allowing Local Authorities to identify regionally significant hazards. For example, the NCCRA Technical Report provides a breakdown for each of the eight NUTS3 regions for each identified risk in terms of the proportion of region affected, e.g. % of buildings at risk of coastal flooding. However, the NCCRA also states that ‘additional and more focussed climate risk assessments’ would be required to fully determine the impacts of a risk at a local level. The assessment of adaptation effectiveness also encompasses national, local, and subnational levels.
Local Authorities may also use the NCCRA findings as a strategic planning tool to:
- Align their Local Authority Climate Action Plans with national priorities.
- Inform decision-making and prioritisation of climate adaptation measures.
- Ensure consistency and coordination with Sectoral Adaptation Plans and the National Adaptation Framework
In summary, the NCCRA provides Local Authorities with a structured, scientifically grounded toolset for understanding and managing climate risks in Ireland, providing an important step towards effective adaptation implementation at the local level.
NCCRA Summary for Policymakers: https://www.epa.ie/publications/monitoring–assessment/climate-change/national-climate-change-risk-assessment-summary-for-policymakers.php
NCCRA Main Report: https://www.epa.ie/publications/monitoring–assessment/climate-change/national-climate-change-risk-assessment-main-report.php
NCCRA Technical Report: https://www.epa.ie/publications/monitoring–assessment/climate-change/national-climate-change-risk-assessment-technical-report.php
Dr. Julie Clarke is Assistant Professor in Engineering in Climate Action in the School of Engineering at Trinity College Dublin. Dr. Clarke is collaborating with Climate Matters on a RD&I Fellowship funded by Research Ireland under Grant number 24/IRDIF/13190. The opinions, fundings and conclusions or recommendations expressed in this material are those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views of Research Ireland.
